Account :

Advanced Taiwan Ocean Prediction System

Tseng, Tsu-Lun - ALL News | 2017-11-13 | Count:615


Title: The updated North Pacific Climate Paradigm to enhance the future ENSO prediction


A new Pacific climate paradigm was recently proposed based on the two dominant coupled ocean-atmosphere (O–A) modes of surface variability and equatorial dynamics. These two leading modes can explain most of the North Pacific climate variability and are linked with each other. The second O–A mode reflects the footprint of the meridional variability associated with North Pacific Oscillation through the tropical–extratropical teleconnection and commonly evolves into the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. This is confirmed by the occurrence of the warm Blob that developed after late 2013 in the northeastern Pacific, leading to the 2015 El Niño. Based on the new paradigm, a simple statistical model is derived to enhance the ENSO prediction through the evolution of the ocean heat condition and the oceanic Kelvin wave propagation associated with westerly wind events and easterly wind surges in the tropical Pacific. The hindcast skill of the proposed model is better than that based on the Warm Water Volume index in terms of the monthly correlation, normalized RMSEs and ENSO occurrences, The hindcast skill is also comparable to the predictions using other dynamical and statistical models, indicating that these processes are the keys to ENSO development.

The comments are owned by the author. We aren't responsible for their content.
Author Thread