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Advanced Taiwan Ocean Prediction System

Tseng, Tsu-Lun - ALL News | 2019-11-22 | Count:29



Tropical Cyclone Climatology and Variability in Taiwan-Philippine Region  (入侵台灣與菲律賓區域的颱風的氣候特性與變化 )


In the densely populated Taiwan-Philippine region (117°E-129°E, 5°N-26°N) over one hundred million people are exposed to tropical cyclone (TC) hazards for more than 6 months in a year. Approximately one third of the TCs formed over the western North Pacific or the South China Sea can intrude into this region and often bring catastrophe to the society. To understand the climatology and variability of TC in this region and to develop the prediction methods for generating timely forecast information is of great scientific importance and potential social and economic benefits to people in this region. In this talk, I will first introduce the seasonal characteristics of TC and monsoon climate environment in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. Then, review the interannual variability of the seasonal features and the driving factors. Lastly, I will discuss the physics based empirical prediction models that have been developed for real-time seasonal TC climate monitoring and prediction in this region.

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