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Advanced Taiwan Ocean Prediction System

Tseng, Tsu-Lun - ALL News | 2019-05-09 | Count:10
 
 
Title: Gust forecasts during typhoons
 
Abstract:
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are commonly used to predict mean wind speeds. However, methods for predicting gust wind speeds in NWP models are still lacking due to limitations of computer resources.
This study develops two models to provide gust wind speed forecasts during a typhoon event: (1) a linear regression-based model and (2) a micro-genetic algorithm (MGA)-based model. This study also proposes a successively accumulated regression process that can adaptively update the parameters in the models and thereby improve the forecasts. The performance was evaluated by comparing observations from gauge stations in Taiwan during six typhoons that occurred between 2015 and 2016.
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