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Advanced Taiwan Ocean Prediction System

Tseng, Tsu-Lun - ALL News | 2019-02-21 | Count:28



Revised earthquake sources for tsunami hazard assessment in South China Sea: A sleeping giant under the Manila trench


Seismogenic tsunami hazard assessment highly depends on the reliability of earthquake source models. Here in Manila subduction zone, we combine the geological characteristics of the subducting Sunda plate, the geometry, and coupling state of the Manila trench to propose a series of physical-based fault rupture scenarios. We divide the subduction zone into 3 rupture segments: 14°N-16°N, 16°N-19°N and 19°N-21.7°N informed by local geological structures. Each of the segments can hold earthquake with magnitude between Mw 8.5+ and Mw 9+ assuming a-1000 year seismic return period. For the most poorly constrained segment between 19°N-21.7°N, inspired both by local geological structures and characteristics of major earthquakes in other subduction zone, we further explore the rupture characteristics in segment 3 by considering multiple rupture modes: seismogenic, tsunami earthquake-like and mega-splay earthquakes. These rupture models facilitate our understanding the potential tsunami hazard in the SCS. Numerical simulations demonstrate that coastlines of the South China Sea (SCS) could be devastated by up to 10-m tsunami waves if such large megathrust earthquake occurs. The most hazard prone regions include west Luzon of Philippine, southern Taiwan, the southern China, central Vietnam and Palawan.


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