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Advanced Taiwan Ocean Prediction System

Tseng, Tsu-Lun - ALL News | 2018-11-05 | Count:24

Title:Changes in the Characteristics of Warm Season Rainfall Types in Taiwan: Past Observation and Future Projection

Abstract:

The warm season rainfall in Taiwan is composed of four types of rain events: tropical cyclone (TC), frontal convection (FC), diurnal convection (DC) and other southerly convection (SC) that propagates from the nearby ocean through the intensified southerly monsoonal flow. In this talk, findings of two studies related to the changes in the characteristics of warm season rainfall types in Taiwan will be presented. First, an observational study of the trends in pre-summer (May and June) FC and DC activities during 1982-2012 over Taiwan and Southeast China will be introduced and the related physical mechanisms for explaining these changes will be provided. Second, a dynamical downscaling model study using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the global High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) will be presented to show the projected changes of the contribution from different types of rain events (including TC, FC, DC, SC) to the total summer (June, July and August) rainfall in Taiwan. The projected changes will be accessed based on the present-day simulation (1979-2003) and future projection (2075-2099, under the RCP8.5 scenario).

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