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Advanced Taiwan Ocean Prediction System

Tseng, Tsu-Lun - ALL News | 2018-03-16 | Count:36

 

Title: Changes in tropical cyclone activity and mechanism over the western North Pacific under global warming scenario.

Abstract:

    Improvement in high-resolution global model has made extreme weather event simulation possible in the recent decade. The GFDL High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) is used to examine the tendency of tropical cyclone(TC) change over the western North Pacific(WNP) in a warmer climate. Significant reduction in TC genesis number is projected under global warming, being consistent with previous studies. We explore the mechanisms leading to the reduction. They include the contraction of precipitation belt toward the equator, increased stability and enhanced subtropical anticyclone and weakened monsoon trough in the WNP. These effects counteract the warming effect of underlying sea surface temperature. Various factors contributing to the genesis potential index are examined to identify the dominant mechanism. The effect of Clausius-Clapeyron relation with increased mean temperature is also discussed in this study.

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